Defense Analysis Seminar -Korea (April, 2008)
Mr. James Cooke, Director Army Modeling and Simulation

A transcript from keynote speaker: Mr. Cooke's presentation to the Defense Analysis Seminar (DAS). 

This is a great time to be a modeling and simulation professional! Thank you for inviting me to this conference to say a few words about our profession of defense modeling and simulation, and about what’s happening to it in the United States.

The value of modeling and simulations is not only gaining increasing notice in the United States, it’s becoming a highly sought skill. Most banks and Wall Street firms rely on their closely held versions of models and simulations to give them an economic advantage in the marketplace. Five years ago, the Congress of the United States started a Modeling and Simulation caucus, or special interest group, so that the Congress can specifically track model and simulation investments across the government. Last year, President Bush signed into law recognition that modeling and simulation capabilities are a national critical interest technology. Our Congress just passed a bill that will give two hundred million dollars to a group of 64 American universities over the next five years towards research on key areas associated with modeling and simulations.

In January, I attended a meeting across the US government on Modeling and Simulation where the Federal Aviation Administration was briefing Congress on its plan to use supercomputers and netted models to eliminate passenger waiting times and plane congestion at airports. The Federal Reserve briefed how its more advanced models, in development, are going to allow it to take actions on the national monetary supply quicker with the same types of tools enjoyed by Wall Street, and this would reduce unemployment and inflation. The National Weather Service identified how its plans for advanced modeling would enable better, more accurate warnings about the expected size and path of hurricanes, so that the civilian population could evacuate in a timely and appropriate manner. Likewise, several other agencies briefed their beliefs in the immediate emerging value of their developing models and simulations. All of these organizations consider defense modeling and simulation to be in the lead in respective development and employment. Our challenge in defense is to live up to that expectation, and to meet the need to create always evolving and relevant models and simulations to meet the intent and aims of the government when defense forces are employed.

The exciting news is that there are many opportunities to create immediate and lasting impact. In past years, modeling and simulation might have been considered a fairly arcane type of magic, giant computers served by monks of data leading to recommended rankings of alternatives, or the generation of system unique training tools. In this generation, we’re moving models and simulation to take its place on the battlefield. By 2015, the way we do models and simulations today will appear as old-fashioned as a rotary dial telephone, and the integration of models and simulations into everyday operations will seem as natural to servicemen and women as today’s personal cell phone. Let me share with you three areas of fundamental change that are pushing us

to keep up current operations, technological change, and probably most importantly, the expectations of our soldiers, airmen, sailors, and marines.

You all recognize the pace of US current operations. It confronts us every day in the news and at our work. Today, the US has nearly one and a half million active servicemen and women, supported by an additional one and a quarter million in the Reserves, conducting operations in more than one hundred countries around the world. In the few years since the US has been in the Middle East, we’ve actually fought and won, and are winning, in several completely different campaigns that have evolved to meet the evolving nature of the conflict. In many of these areas, the US Army does not stand alone. We are joined by our allies, including our great ally the Republic of Korea, conducting day by day, side by side operations to a common goal. We share staff training environments, simulations, with these allies that enable us to make interoperability routine rather than exceptional. This process is accelerating across the free world, and pushes us to make our emerging models even more adaptive to different national operating characteristics. In this we are able to take our lead from the experience we have from our great alliance, conducting the computer assisted wargames in Exercise Ulchi Focus Lens. That is a shining example of allies working together in complete harmony towards a common goal.

The Army recently issued a new Field Manual called FM 3-0, Operations, that for the first time gives equal weight to the Army’s ability to conduct stability operations as it does to the Army’s ability to conduct defensive and offensive operations. One of the most difficult and now clearly recognized tasks at the operational level of war is the requirement to feed, shelter, and re-instate the rule of law over populations not only once we have defeated armed opponents, but also at the same time that we are defeating armed opponents. This includes controlling refugee flows and enduring needed medical care. Essentially, we must be able to conduct disaster relief in the midst of conflict. This is a huge shift in paradigm from ten years ago when some in uniform claimed that the armed forces were not involved in nation-building. In this and in supporting documentation to come, the Army recognizes the importance of the human dimension of war-social networks and dynamics of human and cultural behavior rather than the strictly kinetic dimension. The way forward to implementation of these efforts is more joint, and more involved with agencies even outside of the Department of Defense, than would ever have been dreamed of only five years ago.

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